The modern education system makes it a priority to educate successful people who are ready to make choices and make independent, constructive decisions. Planning life and professional prospects, choosing value priorities cause difficulties for students in educational organizations. A narrow and unstructured perspective of professional and personal development dooms them to a limited range of life manifestations, while interest in the professional future as a field of self-realization disappears.
To make the optimal choice in a situation of professional self-determination, a person needs to have the skills of forming a time perspective of life, modeling a picture of the future. The time perspective of the future is a mental projection of a person’s semantic sphere, which combines aspirations, fears, hopes and plans. In order to have a substantive conversation about the future, various tools for collective forecasting and design have been developed and are increasingly being used, one of which is foresight.
Foresight is a technology for working with images of the future. Foresight assumes that there are many possible futures, and the future that actually occurs depends largely on the actions taken today. Thus, foresight requires a conscious, “proactive” stance towards the future and the recognition that choices made today can shape or even create a picture of tomorrow. Foresight methods can be perceived as a kind of consciousness accelerator. How breakthrough the ideas will be depends on the initial creative potential of the team and its individual participants, on their ability to creatively use the proposed exercises.
A foresight session can become an open design workshop for students to understand the most relevant and environmentally friendly direction for the development of their lives, create a basis for making effective decisions, the emergence of fresh, easy-to-implement ideas, a charge of energy and confidence in the future. It differs significantly from “global” foresights, is purely applied in nature, and its duration ranges from 2 to 4 hours.
The task of the session participants is not just to create an image of their future, but also to develop a “road map”, a kind of strategic navigator that will help quickly chart a route towards their goals.
When conducting a session, IMPORTANT:
Use the energy of positive thinking of the team when the joint project is a visualization of the desired future (the team is initially tuned to the “plus”);
Combine the stages of creative and analytical thinking effectively and in the correct sequence.
Model of conducting a foresight session
An example of a foresight session “Effective technologies for success”
Goal: creating the desired image of the future and determining strategies for achieving it. Tasks:
Formation of a unified “field of ideas” of session participants about current trends and future events. Drawing up by the participants of the session a “map of the future”, describing the main possible events that will influence the achievement of the desired goals. Coordination by session participants of their positions regarding significant factors influencing the achievement of set goals. Forming a “road map” for a successful future.Necessary materials: board or flipchart, flipchart paper, colored markers, whatman paper for each small group, a set of stickers.
Presenter (facilitator): educational psychologist, social educator, curator, tutor.
Target audience: 15–25 people.
Session time: 2–4 hours
Introduction
- speaks and writes down (on a flipchart or on a presentation slide) the purpose and main objectives of the session, the route of work, the main results that should be obtained during the group activity; announces work regulations; establishes the rules of group interaction.
Next, the presenter gives the participants a definition of foresight, explains with them the concept of trend1, and conducts a short discussion on the topic of what success is, a successful personality, a successful future. Participants are given the idea that the future is not predetermined; its foundation is laid by our present actions and decisions.
Task No. 1.
The team of participants is divided into several small groups. In small groups, brainstorming is carried out on the topic of searching for current trends in modern society. The groups also determine which trends need to be supported to create success in different areas of society and their lives, and which trends hinder the development and improvement of the individual and society as a whole. Each highlighted trend is written down on a sticky note and then pasted onto a flipchart.
Task No. 2.
The groups are given the task, taking into account the previously identified positive trends, to model and draw their image of a successful future, as they see it in five years.
You can invite the group to imagine the future metaphorically using the “Map for a Successful Future” exercise. The exercise will allow you to increase the level of your potential, expand your horizon of worldview, and learn to formulate goals more clearly and consciously.
Exercise “Map of the Future”.2
Draw a map of your successful future. Designate your global goals as points in the area where you would like to be. Also identify intermediate large and small goals on the way to them. Come up with and write names for the “goal points” that you strive for in your personal and professional life. Also draw the streets and roads you will walk along.
How will you get to your goals? The shortest way or the roundabout way?
What obstacles do you have to overcome?
What kind of help can you expect?
What areas will you have to cross on your way: flowering and fertile lands, deserts, remote and abandoned places?
Will you be blazing roads and trails alone or with someone?
You can imagine your successful future in the form of desires-drawings pasted on whatman paper, cut out from magazines.
Task No. 3.
After completing the work on modeling a successful future, the groups are asked to develop personalities for 5 years and add key activities to the roadmap.
An example of a roadmap (trends and main activities are written on stickers).
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At the end of the session, participants must present their projects.
Conclusion
At the last stage, the group, with the support of the leader:
- denotes results (“What have we achieved after all?”); makes decisions regarding the strategies developed at the session; evaluates teamwork during the session and draws conclusions for the future.
A foresight session is considered successful if the participants have completed all three stages: created an image of the future, drew a map of scenarios and agreed on ways to achieve it. If it is not possible to work through all three positions in one session, then the facilitator conducts several cycles of foresight sessions with the group.
A foresight session can lay a high-quality foundation for organizing work on professional and personal support for students. By reviewing and analyzing the roadmap activities, teachers can actively engage in collaborative work with students, offering them cooperation and support. It is possible to conduct trainings, seminars, and organize various projects.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
“Theory and methodology” http://lit. lib. ru/t/trushnikow_d_j/indexdate. shtml "Generation of Breakthrough Wears". - M.: MANN, IVANOV AND FERBER, 2015.
1 Trend - tendency; an important, noticeable direction in the development of something.
2 http://trenerskaya. ru/article/view/uprazhneniya-pro-celi
Foresight session
"Camp of the Future"
Target: creating the desired image of the future and determining strategies to achieve it.
Tasks:
Formation of a unified “field of ideas” of session participants about current trends and future events.
Drawing up by the participants of the session a “map of the Camp of the Future”, describing the main possible events that will influence the achievement of the desired goals.
Coordination by session participants of their positions regarding significant factors influencing the achievement of set goals.
Formation of the roadmap “Camp of the Future”.
Necessary materials : board or flipchart (magnetic marker board), flipchart paper, colored markers, whatman paper for each small group, set of stickers.
Presenter: facilitator- ensures successful group communication, adherence to meeting rules, procedures, regulations
The target audience: participants are children aged 11 to 17 years, who are the “customers” of child development strategies, since strategies should be focused, first of all, on the needs of future generations (10 people).
Session time: 3 days
Foresight session is a project session to develop a vision of the future and form ideas.
The project session takes place over three days. The project session includes 3 stages of work:
– designing the image of the “Camp of the Future”;
– formation of project ideas;
– development of project parameters and roadmaps.
Introduction
Leading:
speaks and writes down (on a flipchart or on a presentation slide) the purpose and main objectives of the session, the route of work, the main results that should be obtained during the group activity;
announces work regulations;
establishes the rules of group interaction.
Next, the presenter gives the participants a definition of foresight and discusses with them the concept of a trend (see Appendix"Basic units of foresight" ), holds a small discussion about what they have to do. Participants are given the idea that the future is not predetermined; its foundation is laid by our present actions and decisions.
Main stage
Task No. 1.
The team of participants is divided into several small groups. In small groups, a brainstorming session is held on the topic of searching for current trends in a wellness campaign. The groups also determine which trends need to be supported to create successful recreation and health improvement in children’s camps, and which trends hinder the development and improvement of the individual and society as a whole. Each highlighted trend is written down on a sticky note and then pasted onto a flipchart.
Task No. 2.
The groups are given the task, taking into account the previously identified positive trends, to model and draw their image of the “Camp of the Future” as they see it at certain intervals (near, middle, distant horizons). “Draw the future of your camp.” Within this approach, it is proposed to answer the questions:
– how they see their city in 15–20 years;
– where they see themselves in this camp: what they do, where they live. Before starting this task, it is recommended to discuss several groups of questions with the participants of the foresight session: - what is DOL;
What are its main characteristics; - how DOLs developed in the past, what factors determined their development; - what is important for teenagers in modern children’s education; - what DOLs will be like in the future.
You can invite the group to imagine the future metaphorically using the exercise “I woke up in the morningin DOL and ended up in 2035.” The exercise will allow you to expand your horizon of worldview and learn to formulate goals more clearly and consciously.
You can imagine your successful future in the form of wishes pasted on whatman paper. At the same time, it is important to agree on exactly what types of social activities should be included in this DOL (leisure, socialization, sports...), so that each group can come up with how they will be implemented in their “Camp of the Future”.
Task No. 3.
After completing the Camp of the Future modeling work, groups are asked to develop a roadmap.
At this stage of work, it is important to correlate the desired image of the future with the current situation in the camp and answer the question: are all the needs, formats of leisure and pastime being implemented in the camp. Also, as part of this stage, it is necessary to discuss what can be done today (the immediate horizon) so that new sites and activities appear in the city that will bring the desired image of the future closer. From a comparison of the current situation and the requirements for DOL, formulated at the previous stage, strategies and ideas for future projects should emerge.
Example roadmap
(trends and main events are written on stickers). 
technologies, formats
recovery
- psycholoG
TRIZ pedagogy methods
- Yarnbombing
- Wi- Fi
- relaxation room
- pool
- outdoor cafe
- individual menu
- Bookcrossing
- buffet
- WorkOut
- health path
- organization of forest recreation areas
- construction of Foka
- stadium on the roof of the building
- cycling tracks
- variety of sports sections
- modernization of simulators
- computer room
- robotics club
- quests
- leader school
- planetarium
- new forms of space for creativity (coworking spaces, hackspaces, fablabs)
- interactive library
Digital gallery
- demonstration,
imitation, laboratory, modeling technologies, simulators
- automation
- daily health diagnostics, with recommendations for its prevention
- creating tramps
- cognitive assistants (system of adaptive support for the child during rest)
- gamification
- housings in the “Smart Home” format
- future energy
- mobile camp (changing its spatial location)
- simulator programs
leisure
sport
Socialization
Creation
Culture
education
innovation
middle 2019-2021
average
2022-2025
further
2026-2036
horizons
At the end of the session, participants present their projects. 
Conclusion
Reflection: at the last stage, the group, with the support of the facilitator, reflects on the foresight session:
denotes results: “What have we achieved after all?”;
makes decisions regarding the strategies developed at the session;
evaluates teamwork during the session and draws conclusions for the future.
The participants went through all three stages: they created an image of the future, drew a map of scenarios and agreed on ways to achieve it. the result is a vision of the future and social projects aimed at achieving the selected strategic development priorities. At the same time, the developed projects are not an “order” for the activities of adults, but independent initiatives of the teams participating in the foresight.
A foresight session can lay a high-quality foundation for organizing work on professional and personal support for students.
Application. Basic units of foresight:
Foresight –
this is a technology (session) of long-term forecasting, a way to build a coordinated, balanced and responsible image of the future,this is the joint work of participants on a time map. This is work not with texts, but with images and diagrams.
The authors and participants do not simply assess probabilities and risks, but design their activities. The result of the foresight is the “Map of the Future”.Road map
– a visual image of a shared future, including key development trends, trends, events, technologies, strategic forks and decision pointsTrend –
basic unit of foresight. These are external stable trends, an important, noticeable direction in the development of something.Examples of trends:The share of social design in education has increased. There is an outflow of children's activity into social networks.Technologies
-
a set of methods, processes and materials used in any branch of activity, as well as a scientific description of methods of technical production. Technology Example: Social DesignFormat-
method of construction and presentation, form of holding any event, activityFormat example:Social Design WorkshopTraining on the development of public speakingEvents
What takes place, happens, occurs at a point in space-time; a significant incident, phenomenon or other activity as a fact of public or personal life.
Example of an event: festival of social design, competition “Counselor and his team”
Threat- possible danger. Example threat: lack of funding for social engineering
Unrecognized, unlikely, but at the same time interesting technologies are sent to the field"black swans".
General Director of the Internet agency "InterVolga" ">
Stepan Ovchinnikov,
General Director of the Internet agency "InterVolga"
I ordered a strategic session with the goal of forming a common understanding of the team’s horizon, a vision of goals and priorities, and generating a pool of ideas for specific steps in 2018.
I had a general understanding of the company’s movement, but only me and only a general one. It required immersion of people and elaboration of details, prioritization.
The session leader was chosen based on reviews from familiar companies and websites. I talked to every “potential” organizer.
I liked Dmitry because of his good understanding of IT specifics, high intelligence, practical experience, and “different” outlook. It is important that the consultant is “about the topic”, but “read other books”.
The work began with preliminary preparation: a series of Skype sessions and a “zero day”. The idea of “strategic projects” worked well and formed the essence of the annual plan.
As I expected, the session is a serious stress for the team, it’s not fun, it’s work. It gave both short-term and delayed effects.
Personally, I received a lot of new ideas that were not directly related to strategy. I received a number of advice and contacts. I'm thinking about reforms for the next few years.
The team gained experience in understanding the work of the company as a whole, dialogue, and the formation of projects. We generated 8 project ideas, selected 4 priority projects, and started working on the 6th. It is perfectly.
It is important that without Dmitry’s team the strategy would have been different - I would not have gotten to many things myself. I have already recommended Dmitry - twice on FB and at least twice in personal conversations.
Svetlana Beregulina
Marketing Director at 1C-Bitrix
1C-Bitrix twice invited the Systematic Approach company to organize and conduct sessions on developing product strategy.
The creative process turned out to be more structured; as a result, we received not only new ideas for product development, but an assessment of their viability, and were able to correctly set priorities.
Most of the opportunities proposed at the strategic session were implemented within two years. During this time, our products and services have become even more popular on the market, including this as a consequence of the correct product strategy.
Foresight is a system of methods for expert assessment of strategic directions of socio-economic and innovative development, identifying technological breakthroughs that can have an impact on the economy and society in the medium and long term.
The basis for assessing future options is expert assessments. The Foresight methodology incorporates dozens of traditional and fairly new expert methods. At the same time, they are constantly being improved, techniques and procedures are being developed, which ensures an increase in the validity of forecasting the prospects for scientific, technical and socio-economic development. The main vector of development of the methodology is aimed at more active and targeted use of the knowledge of experts participating in projects. Typically, each foresight project uses a combination of various methods, including expert panels, Delphi (expert surveys in two stages), SWOT analysis, brainstorming, scenario building, technology roadmaps, relevance trees, mutual influence analysis, etc. To take into account all possible options and get a complete picture, as a rule, a significant number of experts are involved. Thus, in the Japanese long-term forecasts of scientific and technological development, carried out every five years, more than 2 thousand experts participate, representing all the most important areas of development of science, technology and engineering, and more than 10 thousand experts participated in the latest Korean project.
Foresight is focused not only on identifying possible alternatives, but also on choosing the most preferable ones
During the selection process, various criteria are used to determine the most preferable options. For example, when selecting critical technologies, the criterion of achieving maximum economic growth can be used, and when building a technological roadmap for the industry, identifying potential market niches and selecting technologies that allow the fastest possible development of competitive products for emerging markets. The choice of development strategy is made on the basis of a sequence of extensive expert consultations, which allows us to foresee the most unexpected paths of development of events and possible pitfalls.
Foresight proceeds from the fact that the onset of a “desirable” version of the future largely depends on the actions taken today, therefore the choice of options is accompanied by the development of measures that ensure the optimal trajectory of innovative development.
Most Foresight projects include science and technology perspectives as a central component. Typically, these issues become the subject of discussion not only by scientists, but also by politicians, businessmen, and practitioners from various sectors of the economy. The result of such discussions is the emergence of new ideas related to improving science management mechanisms, integrating science, education and industry and, ultimately, increasing the competitiveness of a country, industry or region. In addition, the very organization of systematic attempts to “look into the future” leads to the formation of a higher management culture and, ultimately, to the formation of a more justified scientific, technical and innovation policy.
Foresight projects are focused not only on obtaining new knowledge in the form of reports, a set of scenarios, recommendations, etc. An important result is the development of informal relationships between their participants, the creation of a unified understanding of the situation.
In a number of projects, the formation of horizontal networks, platforms within which scientists and businessmen, university teachers and officials, and specialists in related fields can systematically discuss common problems, is considered one of the main effects.
Foresight is organized as a systematic process that must be carefully planned and organized. As a rule, Foresight projects are carried out quite regularly, sometimes according to a repeating pattern (like the Japanese long-term forecast, which has been carried out every 5 years since 1971); in other cases, research is carried out as a sequence of interrelated projects aimed at solving a set of interrelated problems and forming a coherent view of the long-term prospects for the development of technology, innovation and society.
Foresight is a much more comprehensive approach than traditional forecasting.
Firstly, forecasts, as a rule, are formed by a narrow circle of experts and in most cases are associated with predictions of uncontrollable events (forecast of stock prices, weather, sports results, etc.). Within the framework of foresight, we are talking about assessing possible prospects for innovative development related to the progress of science and technology, outlining possible technological horizons that can be achieved by investing certain funds and organizing systematic work, as well as the likely effects on the economy and society.
Secondly, Foresight always implies the participation (often through intensive mutual discussions) of many experts from all fields of activity, to one degree or another related to the topic of a particular foresight project, and sometimes conducting surveys of certain groups of the population (residents of the region, youth and etc.) directly interested in solving problems discussed within the project.
The third main difference between Foresight and traditional forecasts is the focus on developing practical measures to bring the selected strategic guidelines closer.
Foresight is an innovative tool for modeling the future. The basis of the technology is the joint work of participants on a time map. The authors and participants of Foresight do not simply assess the probabilities and risks of the occurrence of certain conditions, but design their current activities in such a way as to increase the likelihood of desired events and suppress undesirable trends. The Foresight structure itself includes the designation of projects and events leading to the chosen goal. At the same time, the result of a foresight session is a map of the future - a visually rich space that allows you to see different ways and means of achieving the desired result.
Foresight technology was created abroad more than 30 years ago and is actively used both in business and in public administration. In 2008, within the framework of the “Metaver - Education of the Future” movement, the Rapid Foresight methodology was developed and tested. The basis of the methodology is the joint work of participants on a time map; working not with texts, but with images and diagrams. Unlike traditional forecasting, Foresight technology is proactive in relation to future events. This means that the authors and participants of Foresight do not simply assess the probabilities and risks of the occurrence of certain conditions, but design their current activities in such a way as to strengthen positive trends, increase the likelihood of desired events and extinguish negative, undesirable trends.
What is the practical value of conducting a foresight session for social service organizations?
New social realities force us to be constantly ready to make choices and decisions. There are two ways to make decisions:
- Classic - from the past to the present. Decisions are made based on past experience. We automatically repeat models that have worked in the past, and we weed out those that did not work. The disadvantage of this approach is that the design of the social environment is now changing so quickly and so radically that previously successful models are completely useless in new circumstances.
- Innovative - from the future to the present. Decisions are made based on a vision of the future that takes into account current trends and the potential for their unfolding. This method is especially effective for social organizations that care about the efficient use of their resources, for which the right decisions are vital both in terms of identifying potentially interesting social partners, attracting and retaining new clients, and attracting decent personnel who will ensure the growth of the client base.
A foresight session allows participants to see the direction of the development vector of the social environment in general and their industry in particular. This allows you to integrate into the general movement and gain additional benefits by determining the required location and optimal time.
The purpose of the social foresight session is to create an attractive image of the future for clients at the intersection of the public sector, NPOs and business.
PPP managers interested in creating a common vision and an effective decision-making system can participate in social foresight (the optimal group is up to 20 people).
Basic methods:
- - trend analysis and scenario development;
- - brainstorming and gamestorming;
- - integral road map.
Additional methods are selected individually, taking into account the tasks of social organizations and the characteristics of the industry in which it operates.
A road map is a visual image of a shared future, including key development trends, trends, events, technologies, strategic forks and decision points, a plan of legislative and lobbying measures and a forecast for technology development, plotted on a timeline.
The minimum duration of a foresight session is 4 hours. Foresight data is a good basis for conducting a strategic session, brand session, and setting priorities in project implementation.
The results of the session will allow representatives of the territories to clarify their social strategies, clearly state their requirements for the competencies of workers in the sector, determine the standards for training specialists in demand in the future, etc.
Additionally, it is possible to organize a public audit of laws, strategic and design-organizational sessions, projects using crowdsourcing technology.
It is necessary to focus on the needs of the client, activate his position and work proactively.
T.V. Shinina
Lit.:Isaac Adizes Calderon. Management in times of crisis. How to save key people and the company. M.: Mann, Ivanov and Ferber, 2015; Interactive map “The Future of Global Education 2015-2035” http://map. edu2035.org/users/sign_in?mode=first&project=futuremap; Developing skills for innovative growth in Russia. M.: Alex, 2015.
