Promising financial planning determines the most important indicators, proportions and rates of expanded reproduction, is the main form of implementation of the organization’s goals. In the process of long-term planning, the settings made in strategic planning receive their economic justification and clarification.
Long-term financial planning in modern conditions covers a period from one to three (less often five) years.
However, the determination of the financial planning period depends on economic stability and the degree of predictability of revenue volumes financial resources and directions of their use.
Long-term financial planning is preceded by the development of the financial strategy of the enterprise and its forecasting financial activities. Development of a financial strategy is a special area of financial planning, since, being integral part overall strategy for the economic development of the organization, it must be consistent with the goals and directions formulated by its overall strategy. At the same time financial strategy itself has a significant influence on the formation of the overall strategy for the economic development of the enterprise. A change in the situation on the financial market entails adjustments to the financial, and then, as a rule, the general development strategy of the business entity.
In passing, we note that the boundary between strategic and long-term plans is blurred and cannot be defined unambiguously. The main criterion for the “length” of plans is the degree of uncertainty of activity, i.e.:
characteristics of the industry in which the commercial organization operates;
general economic situation;
professionalism of planning services workers and management commercial organization 18.
In general, a financial strategy is a detailed concept for attracting and using the financial resources of an enterprise, including a specific mechanism for generating the required amount of financing from various sources and forms, as well as a mechanism for effectively investing these resources in the assets of the enterprise19.
The goals of the financial strategy must be subordinated to the overall development strategy of the organization (enterprise) and aimed at maximizing its market value.
Financial planning is based on financial forecasting data, which is the embodiment of the organization's strategy in the market. Financial forecasting is the study of possible futures financial condition of an economic entity, depending on qualitative and quantitative assessments of the dynamics of financial resources and sources of covering them for the long term, depending on changes in external and internal environment. Important point when making forecasts - recognition of the fact of stability of changes in the organization's performance indicators from one reporting period to another.
Objects of financial forecasting:
income statement indicators;
streams Money;
balance sheet indicators.
The result of long-term planning is thus the development of three main financial forecast documents: a planned profit and loss statement; planned cash flow report; balance sheet plan20.
The main purpose of constructing these documents is to assess the financial condition of an economic entity for the future.
Thus, the long-term plan can be largely predictive, and calculations can become approximate and reflect the general dynamics of processes. Moreover, the longer the planning period, the more financial plan is indicative (non-binding) in nature. This is due to the fact that in the long term, the uncertainty of changes in the macroeconomic environment increases, i.e., factors independent of the activities of the organization (enterprise) begin to play an increasingly important role in the implementation of the plan. Therefore, excessive detail of indicators long-term plan inappropriate
In this regard, when developing a long-term financial plan, aggregated methods for calculating income and expense items are used, which are determined approximately in the form of a forecast and specified in the current plans for a particular year.
To draw up forecast financial documents, it is important to correctly determine the volume of future sales (volume of products sold), the need for investment resources, and methods of financing these investments. This is necessary for organizing the production process, efficient distribution of funds, and control over inventories. Among other things, the forecast of the need for investment resources and sales volumes gives an idea of the market share of the enterprise that it intends to conquer in the future. In turn, the sales volume forecast helps determine the impact of production volume, prices of products sold, and inflation on the organization's cash flows.
Typically, sales forecasts are made for three years. Forecasting sales volumes begins with an analysis of current trends over a number of years and the reasons for certain changes. The next step in forecasting is to assess the prospects for further development business activity the enterprise from the standpoint of the formed portfolio of orders, the structure of manufactured products and its changes, the sales market, the competitiveness and financial capabilities of the enterprise. On this basis, a forecast of sales volumes is built, the accuracy of which is crucial, since an unrealistic estimate of sales volumes can lead to distortion of other financial calculations.
Based on the sales forecast data, the required amount of material and labor resources, and other component production costs are also determined. Based on the data obtained, a forecast profit and loss report is developed, which provides the following capabilities:
determine the volume of production and sales of products in order to ensure their break-even;
set the amount of desired profit;
increase the flexibility of financial plans based on an analysis of the sensitivity of critical ratios (taking into account various factors - price, dynamics of sales volumes, the ratio of the shares of fixed and variable costs).
Next, a cash flow forecast plan is developed,” the need for its preparation is determined by the fact that many of the costs shown when deciphering the profit and loss forecast are not reflected in the procedure for making payments. The cash flow forecast takes into account cash inflows (receipts and payments), cash outflow (costs and expenses), net cash flow (excess or deficit). In fact, it reflects the movement of cash flows from current, investing and financing activities. Separating the areas of activity when developing a cash flow plan allows you to improve the effectiveness of management. cash flows in the process of carrying out the financial activities of the organization.
When planning long-term investments and sources of their financing, future cash flows are considered from the perspective of the time value of money based on the use of discounting methods to obtain comparable results.
Using a cash flow forecast, you can estimate how much of the latter you need to invest in economic activity organization, synchronicity of receipt and expenditure of funds, check the future liquidity of the enterprise.
The forecast of the balance of assets and liabilities (in the form of a balance sheet) at the end of the planned period reflects all changes in assets and liabilities as a result of planned events and shows the state of the property and finances of the business entity. The purpose of developing a balance sheet forecast is to approximate the division of the required increase individual species assets, ensuring their internal balance, as well as the formation of an optimal capital structure, which ensured bi-sufficient financial stability organizations in the future
In contrast to the forecast of the income statement, the forecast balance sheet reflects a fixed, static picture of the financial balance of the enterprise. There are several ways to create a balance sheet forecast. The most frequently used are the following: a) a method based on the proportional dependence of indicators on sales volume; b) methods using mathematical apparatus; c) specialized methods21.
The first of them is the assumption that balance sheet items that are interdependent on sales volume (inventories, costs, fixed assets, accounts receivable, etc.) change in proportion to its change. This method is also called the “percentage of sales method”.
Among the methods using mathematical apparatus, the simple linear regression method, the curvilinear regression method, and the multiple regression method are widely used.
Specialized methods include methods based on the development of separate forecast models for each variable. For example, accounts receivable are assessed based on the principle of optimizing payment discipline, the forecast of the value of fixed assets is based on the investment budget, etc.
One of the planning documents developed by the organization as part of long-term planning is the business plan. A business plan has a clearly defined planning horizon - a time interval within which a commercial organization is able to give an acceptable assessment of investment decisions on all available alternatives, taking into account the changing financial and economic conditions of the enterprise's development.
It is developed, as a rule, for 3-5 years (with a detailed study of the first year and an enlarged forecast for subsequent periods) and reflects all aspects of the organization’s production, commercial and financial activities.
The most important part of the business plan is the financial plan, which summarizes the materials of all the sections preceding it and presents them in value terms. This section is necessary and important both for enterprises and for investors and creditors, since they must know the sources and size of financial resources necessary for the implementation of the project, the direction of use of funds, the final financial results of its activities. Investors and creditors, in turn, must have an idea of how cost-effectively their funds will be used, what is the payback period and return.
The financial plan of the business plan includes a number of documents being developed, including: forecast of sales volumes; forecast of income and expenses; forecast of cash receipts and payments; consolidated balance sheet of assets and liabilities; plan for sources and use of funds; calculation of the break-even point (self-sufficiency). 12.4.
Long-term financial planning determines the most important indicators, proportions and rates of expanded reproduction, and is the main form of achieving the organization’s goals. In the process of long-term planning they get their economic justification and clarification of installations made in strategic planning.
Long-term financial planning in modern conditions covers a period of time from one to three (less often five) years. At the same time, the determination of the period of financial planning depends on economic stability and the degree of predictability of the volume of receipts of financial resources and the directions of their use.
Long-term financial planning is preceded by the development financial strategy enterprises and forecasting its financial activities. Development of a financial strategy is a special area of financial planning, since, being an integral part of the overall strategy economic development organization, it must be consistent with the goals and directions formulated by its overall strategy. At the same time, the financial strategy itself has a significant impact on the formation of the overall strategy for the economic development of the enterprise. A change in the situation on the financial market entails adjustments to the financial, and then, as a rule, the general development strategy of the business entity.
Let us note in passing that the boundary between strategic and long-term plans is blurred and cannot be defined unambiguously. The main criterion for the “length” of plans is the degree of uncertainty of activity, i.e.:
- characteristics of the industry in which the commercial organization operates;
- general economic situation;
- professionalism of employees of planning services and management of a commercial organization.
Generally financial strategy represents a detailed concept for attracting and using the financial resources of an enterprise, including a specific mechanism for generating the required amount of financing from various sources and forms, as well as a mechanism for effectively investing these resources in the assets of the enterprise.
Financial strategy includes determining long-term goals for financial activities and choosing the most effective ways their achievements. The goals of the financial strategy must be subordinated to the overall development strategy of the organization (enterprise) and aimed at maximizing its market value. In general, a practical scheme for developing strategy in companies is presented in Fig. 12.2.
Rice. 12.2.
Based on the company’s financial strategy, its financial policy is determined, which serves as a general guideline for the adoption of all financial decisions for specific areas of activity.
Meanwhile, the main stages of developing a financial strategy for an enterprise include:
- 1. Calculation of the strategy implementation period.
- 2. Analysis of factors in the external financial environment of the company, study of the economic and legal conditions of the company’s activities, and other risk factors.
- 3. Formation of strategic goals of financial activities. At the same time, the system of the latter must be clear and concise, each goal must be presented in the form of specific standards (indicators).
- 4. Development financial policy companies in specific areas of financial activity (separately: tax, dividend, depreciation, credit policy, etc.).
- 5. Development of a system of measures to ensure the implementation of the financial strategy.
- 6. Assessment of the developed financial strategy, incl. its coordination: a) with the overall strategy for goals, timing, directions and stages of implementation; b) with predicted changes in the external business environment; c) with its feasibility.
The basis strategic planning makes forecasts, which are the embodiment of the organization’s strategy in the market. Financial forecasting consists of studying the possible future financial condition of an economic entity, depending on qualitative and quantitative assessments of the dynamics of financial resources and sources of covering them for the long term, depending on changes in external and internal environmental factors. An important point when making forecasts is the recognition of the fact of stability of changes in the organization’s performance indicators from one reporting period to another.
The objects of financial forecasting are:
- income statement indicators;
- cash flows;
- balance sheet indicators.
The result of long-term planning is the development of three main financial forecast documents: a planned profit and loss statement; planned cash flow statement; balance sheet plan 1. The main purpose of constructing these documents is to assess the financial condition of an economic entity for the future.
Thus, the long-term plan can be largely predictive, and calculations can become approximate and reflect the general dynamics of processes. Moreover, the longer the planning period, the more the financial plan is of an indicative (non-binding) nature. This is due to the fact that in the long term the uncertainty of changes in the macroeconomic environment increases, i.e. in the execution of the plan, factors independent of the activities of the organization (enterprise) begin to play an increasingly important role. Therefore, excessive detailing of long-term plan indicators is inappropriate.
In this regard, when developing a long-term financial plan, aggregated calculation methods are used income and expense items, which are determined approximately in the form of a forecast and specified in the current plans for a particular year.
To draw up forecast financial documents, it is important to correctly determine the volume of future sales (volume products sold), the need for investment resources, methods of financing these investments. This is necessary for the organization
Finance of organizations (enterprises): Textbook for universities / Ed. prof. N.V. Kolchina. - M.: UNITY-DANA, 2009. P. 215.
production process, efficient allocation of funds, inventory control. Among other things, forecasting the need for investment resources and sales volumes gives an idea of the market share of the enterprise that it intends to conquer in the future. In turn, the sales volume forecast helps determine the impact of production volume, prices of products sold, and inflation on the organization's cash flows.
When planning long-term investments and sources of their financing, future cash flows are considered from the perspective of the time value of money based on the use of discounting methods to obtain comparable results.
Forecasting the cash flows of an enterprise is necessary to assess its solvency and liquidity in the current period and for the future. And if a short-term cash flow plan allows you to determine cash flows with a sufficient degree of accuracy and is the most reliable tool for measuring the solvency of an enterprise, then a long-term forecast does not allow you to reliably assess all the factors affecting both the receipt of funds and their expenditure. As a result, various schemes for forecasting cash flows are possible depending on the planning horizon, the completeness and reliability of the available information.
The forecast of the balance of assets and liabilities (in the form of a balance sheet) at the end of the planned period reflects all changes in assets and liabilities as a result of planned activities and shows the state of the property and finances of the business entity. The purpose of developing a balance sheet forecast is to determine the necessary increase in certain types of assets, ensuring their internal balance, as well as the formation of an optimal capital structure that would ensure sufficient financial stability of the organization in the future.
One of the planning documents developed by the organization as part of long-term planning is business plan. A business plan has a clearly defined planning horizon - a time interval within which a commercial organization is able to give an acceptable assessment of investment decisions on all available alternatives, taking into account the changing financial and economic conditions of the enterprise's development.
It is developed, as a rule, for 3-5 years (with a detailed study of the first year and an enlarged forecast for subsequent periods) and reflects all aspects of the production, commercial and financial activities of the organization.
The most important part of a business plan is financial plan, summarizing the materials of all sections preceding it and presenting them in value terms. This section is necessary and important both for enterprises and for investors and creditors, since they must know the sources and amount of financial resources necessary for the implementation of the project, the directions for using funds, and the final financial results of their activities. Investors and creditors, in turn, must have an idea of how cost-effectively their funds will be used, what is the payback period and return.
Business plan financial plan includes a number of documents being developed, including: forecast of sales volumes; forecast of income and expenses; forecast of cash receipts and payments; consolidated balance sheet of assets and liabilities; plan for sources and use of funds; calculation of the break-even point (self-sufficiency) of the project.
- Likhacheva O. N. Financial planning at an enterprise: textbook, manual. - M.: Welby: Prospekt, 2005. P. 35.
– a system consisting of many interconnected elements. These include:
- planning staff;
- Information Support;
- organizational support;
- hardware and software;
- methodological and regulatory support.
- promising;
- current;
- operational.
Long-term financial planning occupies an important place in the hierarchy of planning subsystems. The effectiveness of financial planning as a whole depends on the quality of its work. Implementation of financial planning allows you to determine and manage the most important indicators, proportions and rates of expanded reproduction. Long-term financial planning is the main form of achieving the company's goals.
This financial planning subsystem has its own peculiarities. Thus, all planning documents developed within its framework must have a planning horizon from one year to three years (rarely - up to five years). At each enterprise, such a horizon is conditional. It depends on many factors: economic stability in the country, activity, the ability to predict the volume of financial resources and the direction of their use.
As part of long-term financial planning, a number of planning documents are developed, which, in fact, act as forecasts. Thus, the main document of long-term financial planning is the financial strategy. The result of long-term financial planning is also the development of three main financial documents: a forecast of the income statement; cash flow forecast; balance sheet forecast. They are developed to assess the financial position of the enterprise at the end of the planning period. This includes the following forecasts:
- profit and loss statement, which allows you to determine the amount of profit received in the upcoming period (developed on the basis of form No. 2);
- cash flow, which characterizes the movement of cash flows for current, investment and financial activities (developed on the basis of form No. 4);
- balance sheet that allows you to track growth rates economic potential enterprise, since the growth of the enterprise’s assets must be accompanied by an increase in liabilities (developed on the basis of form No. 1).
Many domestic enterprises do not have long-term financial plans, explaining this by the fact that in the conditions of a highly changing external environment making long-term plans is impractical. However, it is not. By drawing up long-term plans, an enterprise can obtain information about its future development and, accordingly, make the necessary financial decisions already in the current period.
The main obstacles to the development of long-term financial planning at responsible enterprises: underdevelopment of financial forecasting; underdevelopment information support; underdevelopment of software and hardware; insufficient level of qualifications financial managers etc.
7.2. Long-term financial planning
The main form of realizing the goals of the organization and the mission of the business as a whole is long-term financial planning. Long-term planning covers a time period from one to three years, and its duration is significantly influenced by the economic situation in the country and the closely interrelated ability to predict economic processes and indicators. The result of long-term financial planning can be considered the formation of three main financial documents or budgets: a forecast report (budget) on profits and losses; forecast report (budget) on cash flows; forecast balance sheet.
The starting point for planning is to determine the forecast sales volumes and the corresponding expenses. The decisive factors here are the product cost structure and the company’s pricing policy. A prerequisite is the classification of costs into variable and fixed. Greater detail is possible, and is determined by the needs of management and the level of management. It will be very useful to use not only financial, but also natural indicators when planning. This will significantly avoid distortions in the structure of production costs. The purpose of this block is to calculate the forecast of sales volume as a whole. Based on the company's development strategy, its production capabilities and, most importantly, forecasts regarding the capacity of sales markets, the quantity of potentially sold products in physical units and the forecast selling prices used to estimate sales volume in monetary terms are determined. Calculations are carried out for the main types of products, and the basic calculation algorithm for forming the sales budget is given by the equation
Where V– forecast revenue from sales of products (works, services);
Q– forecast volume of product sales TO(in natural units);
P- projected selling prices for the product TO;
The basis for constructing a budget is planning the future receipts and payments of funds by an enterprise over a certain time interval. The initial stage of development and the main factor in the accuracy of most budgets is the forecast sales volume. The methods used by the financial services of an enterprise to forecast it are very diverse and depend mainly on the information sources involved, classified into external and internal. Method expert assessments, which involves the involvement of heads of functional departments of the enterprise (production, marketing, finance) in the development, is relatively simple, does not require a significant investment of time or material, labor and financial resources. A disadvantage can be considered the lack of personal responsibility for the forecast made, and, more seriously, the inability to take into account the impact of market changes of an industry nature, as well as long-term trends in the development of the economy as a whole. The use of statistical methods (correlation, regression, etc.) allows you to get rid of subjectivity in assessments and provide a real mathematical basis for making management decisions. However, like all extrapolation methods, they are subject to random fluctuations in the data and retain the ability to transfer past trends to future processes. As a rule, it requires significant information, labor and financial resources, developed information processing technology and a rational structure of information flows between interested services. All these methods complement each other and the final and most accurate forecast will be obtained if one of them is used as an additional criterion for monitoring the results obtained using other methods.
Forecast profit and loss report (budget of income and expenses). The main purpose of this financial plan (forecast) is operational management on the “plan-to-fact” principle of the most important financial indicator of the enterprise’s activity - profit and current profitability.
The forecast balance is the final and most complex document from a methodological point of view. The need for formation is dictated by its ability to verify the correctness of the budget for cash flows and the budget for income and expenses and serve as an indicator of their proper execution.
The main variables taken into account during development are:
1. the amount of equity capital;
2. the amount of funds and reserves being formed (calculated based on forecasts of possible changes in financial results);
3. cost of fixed assets and intangible assets (information from business plans and operational investment budgets);
4. cost of inventory and other elements of current assets (information on percentages in the cost structure);
5. the amount of attracted credit resources (credit plans and cash flow budget information, in terms of temporary cash gaps and the need for credit resources);
6. volumes of accounts payable and receivable (information on average repayment periods and estimated sales volumes).
The structure of the forecast balance corresponds to the generally accepted one, because The reporting balance sheet of the reporting date is used as the source.
Cash flow forecast (budget). The significance of this element lies, firstly, in the possibility of establishing control over solvency and current financial stability, and secondly, it allows you to control financial flows and build a policy of relationships with debtors and creditors. Due to the pronounced spontaneity in cash flow, most indicators are difficult to predict with a high degree of probability, therefore, the rigor of information (primarily accounting data) and the use of specific methods financial analysis. The ability to monitor its financial position relieves the enterprise of inconsistencies between discrete financial statements(quarterly and annual data) and continuity of business processes. This information allows you to determine the company's cash needs, plan sources of financing, and exercise operational control over cash flow and liquidity. One of the most important purposes of budgeting is to determine the timing and amount of expected financing in order to apply the most rational method of financing. The estimate helps financial director when planning short-term financing, and is also necessary in managing the company's cash. As a result, the organization gains financial transparency.
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Financial planning is a subsystem of intra-company planning of an economic entity. The essence of financial planning is revealed through planning objects, goals and objectives, and financial planning methods.
Financial resources- these are monetary incomes and receipts at the disposal of a commercial organization and intended for the implementation of expenses for expanded reproduction, economic stimulation, fulfillment of obligations to the state, and financing of other expenses.
The goals of financial planning of a business entity depend on the selected criteria for making financial decisions, which include maximizing sales, profits, property of company owners, etc.
The main objectives of financial planning are:
- providing financial resources for the production, investment, and financial activities of the enterprise;
- determining areas for capital investment and assessing the effectiveness of its use;
- identification of internal reserves for increasing profits;
- establishing rational financial relations with the budget, banks, counterparties.
Planning methods - these are specific methods and techniques for calculating indicators.
During financial planning, the following methods are used: economic analysis; normative; calculation and analytical, balance sheet; optimization of planning decisions; economic and mathematical modeling.
Economic analysis method allows you to determine the main patterns, trends in the movement of natural and cost indicators, and evaluate the internal reserves of the enterprise.
Essence normative method lies in the fact that, on the basis of pre-established norms and technical and economic standards, the need of an economic entity for financial resources and their sources is calculated.
The essence calculation and analytical method planning financial indicators consists in the fact that based on the analysis of the achieved value of the financial indicator taken as the base and the indices of its change in the planning period, the planned value of this indicator is calculated.
Balance sheet method provides that by building a balance, a link between the available financial resources and the actual need for them is achieved.
Method for optimizing planning decisions comes down to developing several options for planned calculations in order to choose the most optimal one.
Method of economic and mathematical modeling allows you to quantitatively express the relationship between financial indicators and the main factors that determine them.
Long-term financial planning
Such planning determines the most important indicators, proportions and rates of expanded reproduction; moreover, it is the main form of realizing the company’s goals.
Long-term financial planning in modern conditions covers a period from one year to three years (rarely - up to five years). However, such a time interval is conditional, since it depends on the economic stability in the country, the results of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise, the ability to predict the volume of financial resources and the direction of their use.
To draw up a long-term financial plan, enterprises analyze financial indicators for the previous year, and for this they use documents such as balance sheets, profit and loss statements, and cash flow statements.
The basis of long-term planning is forecasting , which is the embodiment of the company's strategy for quite a long time. Forecasting consists of studying the possible financial condition of an enterprise over the long term.
The result of long-term financial planning is the development of three main financial documents: a profit and loss forecast, a cash flow forecast and a balance sheet forecast. The main purpose of generating these documents is to assess the financial position of the enterprise at the end of the forecast period.
Profit and loss forecast. Using the profit and loss forecast, the amount of possible profit in the coming period is determined. When carrying out predictive profit analysis, in practice, an analysis of the break-even and financial stability of a business entity is used.
Cash flow forecast. This forecast reflects cash flows from current, investing and financing activities. Delineating areas of activity when developing a forecast allows you to increase the effectiveness of cash flow management.
Balance sheet forecast. The structure of the projected balance sheet corresponds to the generally accepted structure of the enterprise's reporting balance sheet.
To prepare forecast financial documents, it is important to correctly determine the volume of future sales. This indicator gives an idea of the market share that the company expects to retain. Sales forecasts are usually prepared for three years. Annual sales forecasts are broken down by quarter and month. The shorter the sales forecasts, the more accurate and specific the information contained in them should be. This is due to the fact that in the first year of production the buyers of the products are already known, and the calculations for the second and third years are in the nature of forecasts.
Balance Forecast is part of the main documents for long-term financial planning. The balance sheet is a summary table that reflects the sources of capital (liability) and the means of its placement (asset). The balance sheet of assets and liabilities is necessary in order to assess what types of assets funds are allocated to, and through what types of liabilities they are supposed to be formed. In the balance sheet assets, the most significant part of assets can be distinguished - current assets (bank account, cash, accounts receivable), inventories and fixed assets.
The liability reflects the own and borrowed funds of the business entity, their structure and forecasts of their changes for the planned period. In contrast to the income statement forecast, which shows the dynamics of the financial operations of the enterprise, the balance sheet forecast reflects a fixed, static picture of the financial balance of the business entity. The structure of the projected balance sheet corresponds to the generally accepted structure of the organization's balance sheet, since the reporting balance sheet as of the last date is used as the initial one.
With a planned increase in sales volume (sales volume), the organization's assets must be increased accordingly, since increasing production and sales requires additional funds for the purchase of equipment, raw materials, and materials. An increase in the volume of product sales, as a rule, leads to an increase in accounts receivable, as enterprises provide customers with longer deferred payments and expand the practice of selling goods on consignment terms. The growth of a business entity's assets must be accompanied by a corresponding increase in liabilities, as accounts payable (obligations to pay for supplies of raw materials, energy, and various services) grow and the need for borrowed and raised funds increases.
Cash flow forecast - financial document, received in Russian practice has become increasingly widespread in recent years. It reflects the movement of cash flows from current, investing and financing activities. Thus, forecasting the results of an economic entity’s activities allows one to increase the effectiveness of cash flow management and the financial stability of the organization as a whole.
